I don't really expect the Pirates to make many splashy moves as they seem pretty set at most of the premium positions (barring injuries). The emergence of Gerrit Cole has been huge. Premium starting pitching costs a crazy amount at the deadline. Look at what the A's had to give up last year. My biggest request for the Pirates is to cut ties with someone who was once considered a main piece of the "core."
My hope is the Pirates somehow cut ties with Pedro Alvarez. I never thought I would say that, but his regression into a below average player has been rough to watch. He went from being a franchise cornerstone to a marginal one dimensional player in about two years.
In 2013 he had a career year hitting 36 homeruns and playing about a league average third base. The wheels started to come off some last season when he began to have throwing issues. The Pirates finally had to pull the plug on him and use him as a pinch hitter as they couldn't afford to run him out there in the middle of a playoff push.
This season the Pirates came into spring with the idea that Pedro was going to play first. As a Pirate fan this seemed like a reasonable transition as Pedro has good hands and the power plays at any position. You can take a reasonable amount of bad defense when someone is capable of hitting 30 homeruns.
At this point it would be an understatement to say the transition has been a disappointment. You expect growing pains as 3+ months is not a huge sample size, but their are huge red flags. The throwing issues continue to plague him and his footwork has been terrible. So far this season he has been tagged for 9 errors which really doesn't even paint the picture of how bad he has actually been. By most advanced metrics Pedro has been the second worst defensive player in baseball behind Hanley Ramirez attempting to play outfield in Boston. The Pirates have to be disappointed because this spring they said the transition to first would ease his stress level which should help his hitting.
Most Pirate fans are rightfully a little gun shy on shipping players off without getting much in return. Letting go of Jose Bautista can do that to you. Personally I think it is apples and oranges. Pedro is so bad defensively I don't think he can ever regain any trade value. Even in his best season he was worth around 3 WAR and that was with him playing average defense. He is a one tool player. His best comparables are guys like Mark Trumbo and Mark Reynolds. Hard to see a future for Pedro that doesn't involve being a platoon DH in the AL.
As of now the long term solution is having Josh Bell be the first baseman, but that is not going to happen this year. The Pirates are in a rough spot, but I feel the bold move is needed. Pedro's bat is not good enough right now to warrant the terrible defense. We are too good of a team for him to workout his issues in a game.
The hard part is determining the trade market and to what extreme the Pirates explore it. In terms of rumors their hasn't been much with the Pirates. If history says anything the Pirates won't make a splashy move, so my money is they find a natural first baseman on a cheap or expiring contract to limit the prospect cost.
End of rant.
Love to hear other peoples thoughts on your chosen teams needs.
Not many thoughts, but I agree with your stance. Bell will be a great 1st Baseman once he finally comes up, but untill then looks like you're stuck with crappy defense. Makes me happy as a Cardinals fan though seeing your 3B/1B crumble before your eyes as the Cardinals take the pennant. But I must say those are some really nice cards you have of him.
ReplyDeleteIt's just tough to see. You would hope with age that he would make some adjustments, but he is regressing at a vicious pace.
DeleteAt some point that Cardinal black magic has to end.
Like to see what we could get for Pedro. A contending team like Tampa or Minnesota might pony up a decent young LHP for some power. In the mean time, part of me would rather see Rodriguez get more playing time at 1B.
ReplyDeletehe would be perfect for the Rays, total AL player similar to Gattis. S Rod was always one of my favorites, he can play if given time.
DeleteIf the Twins had any decent young LHP, that might work. Would Tommy Milone count? I'd say no thanks if I were the Pirates.
DeleteI don't think he has much of any trade value. He could only go to the AL and you wouldn't be able to play him against lefties. Maybe a middle reliever....or a very low end prospect.
DeleteYou know it's hard to imagine how bad Alvarez has been if you keep showing off his amazing eye catching cards ;).
ReplyDeleteIt's always tough to part with a player who was once thought to be a key pieces of the future. However, that could work to the Pirates' advantage seeing as how teams are ALWAYS willing to take shots on former first rounders/former top prospects, even if they lost some shine. What Pedro would bring back remains a mystery and personally I'd try and package him with one of the Pirates' injury plagued pitching prospects for something great. That said, the Pirates do not have a history of making blockbuster deals. The only guys I can remember (in recent history) going to the Pirates include Travis Snider and Wandy Rodriguez.
On a sidenote, I still totally think the Pirates should trade for Giancarlo Stanton (contract and all) ;).
DeleteThe only deal in which the Pirates actually traded a prospect of note was sending Dilson Herrera to the Mets for Marlon Byrd. Big deals just don't happen for the Bucs.
DeletePedro is not going to bring back anything of note, but it has almost gotten to the point where it would be addition by subtraction. He has essentially been below replacement level the last year. It will be hard to make something work at the deadline.
I would breakdown crying if they got Stanton. He is my favorite non Bucco. He is worth the price of admission.
Selfishly, I have to say that I hope That an adequate replacement for Pedro isn't found; you guys are tough to catch up to anyway!
ReplyDeleteI'm liking my prediction post at the beginning of the year that the Central would get three playoff teams! I don't think you need to worry though, as the Cubs are going to be good for a long time. I bet you $1 that they go out and get a big name pitcher this offseason. David Price?
DeleteI feel your pain since I've seen the same thing at times with my Tigers. Regardless of his apparent decline, those are some ridiculously nice cards!
ReplyDeleteYou hate to see such a high end prospect flame out. I never thought he was going to be a superstar, but a very servicable everyday player seemed likely. The defense has just killed any value that the power provides.
DeleteTwins need bullpen help and a big bat if they want to contend this year. Arcia can't get it together, and as much as I love Kennys Vargas, he's not quite there yet.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the Twins can afford to be patient. Buxton and Sano will be around for quite some time.
They have surplus starting Pitching, but it's hard to say who they would move.
I kind of hope the Twins don't do anything crazy at the deadline to jeopardize their future. If they can develop some high end starting pitching the future is very bright.
DeleteThey've got some impact arms on the way, it's been the main focus of the last 2 or 3 drafts. Jose Berrios, Kohl Stewart, Chih-Wei Hu, Lewis Thorpe, and a few other guys are making progress. Alex Meyer is kind of stalled out in AAA, Trevor May is having a good season so far, his first full one in the bigs. Pitching is so fickle, though, it's hard to say which (if any) will ultimately make it to the show.
DeleteI think the Twins are doing good by supplementing their holes with internal options. No use giving up a prospect when you can just see how that prospect will do anyway.
DeleteNice cards, I agree, its tough to give the negatives of him after seeing all those cards.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I would say last year Kansas City could have taken a chance since Moustakas was terrible at this time last year. This year though, I like our infield (well, Omar Infante is something else), but I hope the Royals can get some quality starters. Some fans even suggest using Holland as trade bait, which with the continued rise of Wade Davis, I would be okay with that.
I'm a huge fan of trading closers as their value is overrated. The Royals could probably turn Holland into a nice prospect haul. Just look at what the Braves were able to do with Craig Kimbrell. They somehow convinced the Padres to take BJ Melvin Upton too.
DeleteThe hard thing for the Royals is that they are very much in contention. They would probably need to get something that can help right away which may be difficult.
If you trade Alvarez, who takes over first? Corey Hart? Maybe you sign Adam Lind?
ReplyDeleteOr is there a prospect in the system to take over there?
I mean, the Brewers need help in the starting rotation, in the bullpen, and in their lineup, so I'm one to talk.
I know -- y'all can have Kyle Lohse.
Sean Rodriguez... he may not have power, but I don't have to hold my breath everytime he makes a play. And send Lohse to St. Louis, please.
DeleteIf they move Alvarez their would have to be a corresponding move. The only first baseman on the roster are Corey Hart and Sean Rodriguez. I'm guessing Hart will probably be DFA'd sometime this summer and they are not going to give all the at bats to Rodriguez. The Pirates do have a high end prospect in Josh Bell, but they are not going to give him the job in the middle of the season.
DeleteIt is a difficult situation for the Pirates. In a perfect world Pedro starts showing drastic improvement, but that seems unlikely. Even if his footwork gets better the elephant in the room is the throwing.
I love trade talk this time of year. There's still some time before the deadline, but we're only a little more than a week away from when Billy Beane gifted the Cubs their new shiny starting second baseman.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds like Alvarez is about done in Pittsburgh. Maybe a reunion with Garrett Jones is in order or maybe the Red Sox will realize they should sell and the Pirates can snag Mike Napoli?
Either way, here's a site that I like to frequent this time of year. I think I have the link looking specifically at 1B. Have fun!
http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2016/1st-base/
The good thing is that the Pirates really only have one legitimate hole. The bad thing is not that easy of a fix. A reunion with Steve Pearce would make some sense. He offers a little postion flexibility too as he can handle right field.
DeleteHuge fan of defense (watched that Donaldson catch like five flippin' times already)... but I can't feel too bad for you. My Oakland A's are the worst fielding team in baseball!
ReplyDeleteBy BaseRuns the A's are one of the best teams in baseball. They've been hurt by poor defense and a terrible bullpen.
DeleteYeah. Not sure what's worse between those two things.
DeleteIt's the bullpen that is killing them. I think they've lost more leads past 7 innings than any team in baseball.
DeleteI bet you can blame a little bit of the bad bullpen on the bad defense... The Twins have had similar struggles in the recent past. The defense is light years better with Buxton and Rosario in the OF this year instead of Oswaldo Arcia and two shortstops. And surprise surprise, now the Twins pitching is better. I think team defense can make or break a pitching staff.
DeleteNo doubt. Look at the Pirates the last couple of years. Our pitching staff was pretty mediocre, but the intense shifting caused all our pitchers to outperform their advanced numbers. You don't have to have great defenders if you put them in situations to succeed.
DeleteOther than Pedro - are there Pirates that might be dealt? Would Pittsburgh trade a prospect for a Major league player? I don't know much about the Pirates' farm system, who's untouchable and who's expendable?
ReplyDeleteThe good thing is the Pirates don't have a ton of needs. Pedro is the only one I could see on the 25 man roster dealt. Our top prospect is Tyler Glasnow and he is probably not going anywhere because Burnett is retiring after this year and Locke has been ineffective. I think any move the Pirates will make will be minor in nature.....which is not a bad thing.
DeleteYou always start hearing big rumors this time of year because the Pirates do have a deep system. So whenever big names hit the market we are always mentioned as having the pieces to get a deal done, but it never happens. The Pirates don't take on big salary. The biggest free agent deal in team history is 3yr/39mil for Liriano.