As you know MVP awards often become hot topics toward the end of the season. In years past voters would look more at counting stats rather than the overall body of work. The year Juan Gonzalez won the MVP is a great example as Griffey Jr was by far the best player.
In recent years voters have done a better job of avoiding the real egregious picks. Mike Trout could easily have 3 MVP's but it is not like it was some atrocity that Miguel Cabrera won the award. Cabrera was probably the better hitter, but Trout was hands down the best overall player. Personally I think Trout should have won, but that is a worn out argument. Overall the last handful of years has been much better.
The debate now is Bryce Harper. No statistical argument can be made which doesn't have Harper winning the award. He leads just about every offensive category you can think of by a considerable margin. What he doesn't have is narrative.
Voters love a good story. They want guys leading their team to the playoffs. Some voters will only vote for the best player that is on a playoff team. If you Google 2015 NL MVP you will eventually run into articles making the case for guys like Anthony Rizzo, Kershaw/Grienke and Cutch.
As much as I love Cutch, he doesn't deserve the MVP. It just feels like everyone is over thinking it this year. It is not Bryce Harper's fault that the Nats underachieved. People put way too much stock into things the actual player can't control. One of the years Miggy won the AL MVP a voter referenced the Tigers made the playoffs. Mike Trout's Angels actually had the better record.
The Fangraphs article I referenced plays devils advocate and trying to say Harper is more good than great when his team needs him the most. In low to medium leverage situations Harper is by far the best hitter in baseball, but in high leverage situations he is 70th. Guys like Rizzo and Cutch rated much higher. At the end of the article the writer said he would still vote for Harper. His point was basically saying context can and should play a small part in voting.
When it was all said and done you can keep drilling and find flaws in someones game. Basically it comes down to voting for someone who is having a historically great season, but on an underachieving team. To me MVP means best player. Bryce Harper is the best player this year. I find it odd that we can pick CY Young winners on bad teams (Kluber and King Felix), but the hitter gets docked for being on a bad team.
I think Harper will win, but it won't be the landslide victory that it should be.
Vote Harper!
Personally I find it really odd that there's an award dedicated to a player who is deemed the most important/valuable in a TEAM sport. Is America so obsessed with independence that it needs to recognize certain individuals even in baseball? Where one elite guy does not make a team great (just look at Trout/Harper right there lol).
ReplyDeleteBaseball loves its awards. Plus the individual records have always been placed on a pedestal.
DeleteYou are right about how one guy can't put a team over the top. Look at the Cardinals. They really don't have a superstar player this year, but they are full of 2-3 WAR players.
If your going to give the award to the best player in the league,then they should change the name of the award to BOP,best overall player award.To me ,the award has to go to the most valuable player to a specific team. I think It should go to a player on a team that Is ,at least contending , because without that particular player ,contention Is a mere afterthought.Every team has an MVP If you look at It,but some depend on theirs more than others.Very seldom do you a see a single player carry a ball club,but try taking that guy out of the line up without exposing your line up and dropping In the standings.Those are the the guys that deserve the MVP imo.Awesome card btw ;)
ReplyDeleteSince their is only one award I feel like it has to go to the best player. In cases where it is a dead heat stat wise (Trout/Donaldson) I'm fine with voters digging deeper to separate the two. I just feel the penalty for not making the playoffs is silly. I think everyone agrees that Bryce Harper has been the best player in baseball this year. Should he be punished for Rendon, Zimmerman and Werth being hurt? What if Harper hit .400 or broke the doubles record this year....
DeleteThe only way they fix this issue is if baseball defines MVP. Otherwise this argument will go on forever.
The clutch hitting thing... you're right, if you dig deep enough you can make a case for any player winning the MVP.
ReplyDeleteRizzo? I'm about as Cub crazy as a guy can get, but he's no where near the best player in the league or the most valuable. I would put Harper, Goldschmidt, and McCutchen all above Rizzo. Maybe Arrenado, too?
I'm one of those guys who has trouble voting for a pitcher to win the MVP. If Grienke or Kershaw would pitch more than every fifth day then I could see it, but they are only playing 20% of their team's games.
I don't have a problem voting for a pitcher. Kershaw deserved it last year. I get that they play in only 20%, but they have a full reign on that 20% and can dictate an outcome more than any other player on the field.
DeleteI agree about Rizzo. Really the only other player that can be mentioned in the same breath as Harper this year is Goldschmidt, but he won't get any votes either because the Dbacks are not good. Voters love a good story and their votes often reflect that.
I agree that most times pitchers should not be an MVP BUT last year was an exception with Kershaw and I am not saying that as a Dodger fan per se. He not only affected 20% which was the game he pitched but he affected 40% more as he helped dictate how the game before and after he pitched was handled. The bullpen could be more taxed due to him expected to go deeper.
DeleteI also think that pitchers should only be considered for MVP when there is no clear cut hitter which was also the case last year. Stanton had a shot but him getting sidelined for the last month really hurt him.
With that said Greinke no matter how great he has been this year does not deserve the MVP. Harper hands down
I'm all for digging deeper if the stats alone don't separate the candidates. Like you mentioned with Kershaw last year. That was a great example of the field not separating itself. Kershaw was a deserving candidate. I just don't think their is a reasonable argument for not choosing Harper.
DeleteLast week I was hearing about Cespedes a lot - did he start slumping? The case against him of course is that he has only been with the Mets for a short time, but again it is the narrative that was putting his name in the news.
ReplyDeleteI always thought it would be interesting if a guy was putting up Harper like stats and then switched leagues at the deadline.
DeleteCespedes has come back down to earth the last 10 days or so.