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Thursday, September 3, 2015

Appropriate Sample Size

Does your team have that one player they keep running out there over and over even if the performance begs for a change? Maybe it is a guy that had "prospect" status, or just a case of a team not having a viable alternative. I've already touched on Pedro Alvarez who falls under the first two categories. The other guy who pretty much makes every Pirate fans head explode is Jeff Locke.



The Pirates in the last few years have a well documented track record of fixing pitchers. Players such as AJ Burnett, Edison Volquez and Mark Melancon have revitalized their careers. One thing that made these turnarounds remarkable is how quick they happened. So why hasn't Locke been able to follow suit?

Locke has several characteristics that the Pirates look for in pitchers. He has a great ground ball % rate which plays well with the shift and he is among the leaders of working on the inner half of the strike zone. Back in 2013 (his first full year as a starter) he made the All Star team based on a super low ERA. While it was nice to see the Pirates winning with their fifth starter on the hill, it was more of a mirage than anything. Statistical based sites like Fangraphs predicted some hardcore regression and boy did that happen. So much so that Locke was sent down to AAA late in the summer.

In 2014 and 2015 it has been more of the same. Since the Pirates have had the Midas touch for the better part of three years with pitchers I tend to give them the benefit of the doubt. The question is how long should a team wait for someone to turn the corner? This gets even more complicated when your team is a perennial contender like the Pirates.



Here are some stats I pulled from Fangraphs among qualified starters (around 85 total pitchers).

Whip = 8th worst
K/9 = 21st worst
BB/9 = 12th worst
WAR = 17th worst
LOB% = 11th worst

His saving grace is that his FIP and XFIP usually hovers in the high 3's to low 4's which is completely adequate for a fifth starter.

Usually you can handle someone being towards the bottom of one or two of the categories I mention. A lot of times guys with high walk rates tend to be high strikeout guys so they can wiggle out of trouble themselves. As you can see Locke is his own worst enemy. If you are constantly putting guys on it only takes a hit for a run to score. Also it easy to see why he never gets deep in games. In the past ten games he has only made it past 6 innings twice. It is almost a guarantee that a Locke start will result in three or four relievers being used.

As a fan you want to hold your hat on something. With someone like Pedro Alvarez the fall back is usually his power, but with Locke you are grasping at straws. Right now his value is all tied up in his ability to be durable, but to me that only gets you so far. It's obvious the Pirates love the makeup, but with no improvement in command I just don't see how much more the Pirates can take.



My guess is I wouldn't even be writing this if Jameson Taillon or Nick Kingham would have stayed healthy. This offseason the Pirates will have to make a choice. They could non-tender him at the end of the year and try to find another pitcher to fix, or they continue to hope he somehow finds his command. To me 3 years seems like more than enough sample size to make a decision to cut ties.










16 comments:

  1. I remember seeing his super low ERA and him making the all star game in '13. Haven't heard anything about him since which is usually a bad sign... at least you still have Charlie Morton?

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    1. I think the Pirates would be thrilled if Locke would turn into Morton. When Morton is on his game he is tough to hit. Locke is pretty much always hittable.

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  2. His still being in the rotation is entirely dependent on others not being able to go -- no question.

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    1. He has been blessed to pitch this long. He also doesn't have any minor league options left which only complicates matters. The Pirates didn't have the depth to try and designate him for assignment.

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  3. Could write a book about the overuse of underperforming guys in MN. Starting with, and I hate to say it, but it is true, Joe Mauer. Not so much that they keep playing him, but that he keeps batting third all season...

    Then there's the bullpen... And Nolasco, Pelfrey, Hughes, E. Santana in the rotation- the only way out is the DL...

    Whew. Rant over. Would you rather they called up Worley?

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    1. This time of year I would be completely fine with a bullpen game. Burnett should be coming back next week so this will be mute. This makes the third year in a row that Locke has been pulled from the rotation during the playoff run.

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  4. You want Aaron Harang or Jerome Williams... ugh Phillies

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    1. Yeah, that would be rough. At least with the Phillies they are doing a complete rebuild and have to get guys like that to prevent all the young guys service clocks to start at the same time.

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  5. Up until a few weeks ago (when he was finally benched), that guy was Starlin Castro for the Cubs.

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    1. The Cubs are going to eat that contract hard. Probably the only way he gets moved is if half the salary is paid down or an exchange of bad contracts. Talk about a guy that peaked early.

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  6. Marcus Semien. The A's just need to make this guy a below average designated hitter and prevent him from giving the other teams free baserunners.

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    1. They would really have something with him if he can learn to be even a slightly below average fielder. That bat can play.

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  7. The nightmarish second base platoon that is Stephen Drew/Brendan Ryan.

    I'd be more willing to see what Robert Refsnyder and Jose Pirela can do.

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    1. Yeah, that one is pretty bad. We have the same issue at first base with Alvarez/Morse/Rodriguez/Ishikawa.

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  8. I was always amazed that Locke was the first of The Altoona 4 ( Wilson, Locke, Owens, Morris) to make the majors. Every time he takes the mound I hope he is hitting those spots. If he walks a batter in first 2 innings, I know it's going to be a rough night. You said it in the beginning though, if Taillon, Kingham, Cumpton, or Sadler were healthy we wouldn't even be having these talks.

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    1. I refuse to go to games in which he starts. If I'm given tickets so be it, but never on my dime. He is just too frustrating.

      I don't think Sadler or Cumpton would have taken his spot, but Taillon and Kingham for sure.

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