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Thursday, December 10, 2015

The Difference Between Liking and Understanding

As collectors I think it is safe to say we get attached to the players on the field. The longer tenured the player the bigger connection. While I'm more of a team collector than a player collector this still holds very true for me.



With the recent non tender of Pedro Alvarez and the trade of Neil Walker, Pirate fans got a big dose of what it means to be a small market team. No matter how much success the Pirates have, they will always be near the bottom of the payroll. It is just the nature of the market. Things could be different if we had some hot shot Mark Cuban type of owner, but the reality is the Pirates are ran like an efficient business. You will never see major free agent contracts or marquis trades. The focus is on internal player development and market inefficiencies.



The only reason I mentioned Pedro Alvarez is that he has been a mainstay in the Pirate lineup during the Pirates turnaround into a contending team. His non tender was no surprise though because his defense fell apart.  No matter what he did with the bat, his defense would bring him down to a replacement level player. He belongs in the AL.



Now the Neil Walker trade is a totally different animal.  As soon as the baseball season was over, speculation season began. While much of the core of the Pirate team stays intact, many of the complimentary parts were some combination of retiring, free agent or had only 1 year left on their deals. Neil Walker fell into the 1 year category.



The Pirates had offered Neil Walker extensions on multiple occasions over the past couple of years with him rejecting every time. With him entering his last year of arbitration it pretty much came down to the Pirates trading him or letting him play out his last season with the hopes of being able to offer a qualifying offer. Obviously both come with considerable risk.



The Pirates chose to trade Walker to the Mets for Jon Niese yesterday. The immediate reaction was that the return on Walker was weak. On the surface this is completely true. You can pretty much chalk up Walker to be a 2-3 WAR player every year and by losing his bat it immediately makes us worse in the short term. Jon Niese has been a good pitcher before, but the last two seasons have been very mediocre. On the surface he looks to be nothing more than a Jeff Locke clone.



The silver lining is that the Pirates have a fantastic track record of getting the most out of their pitcher acquisitions. Over the last handful of years the Pirates have fixed the likes of AJ Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Edison Volquez, J.A. Happ, Mark Melancon and Arquimedes Caminero. Once or twice you could call it luck, but we have pretty much struck gold on every guy. Obviously someone knows what they are doing. If the Pirates do work their magic on Jon Niese he has two very affordable team options (~10 mil) that could give them some decent value for mid/backend rotation piece. While the 10mil on the surface seems like a lot that is nothing for starting pitching.



I think when someone has been a fixture on a team for so long you can overvalue his worth. I really think any return for Neil Walker was going to disappoint the fan base. While solid across the board, Walker is not the type of player that fetches top prospects or young cost controlled players. The Pirates chose to gamble on a guy that doesn't have much upside, but also has little risk.



The main counter argument was to keep Walker for his last year (I was in this camp). Obviously the Pirates thought this was the riskiest of options. Whether we like it or not the Pirates are not in the business of letting assets go away for nothing. This either means trades or qualifying offers. The Pirates are betting that Jon Niese is more valuable than a compensation pick from Neil Walker not accepting a qualifying offer. That seems to be a reasonable belief.  Also, Neil Walker's production could fall of to the point where he holds no value. Second baseman have a history of not aging well.



I'm a glass half full type of guy.  I'm always trying to look at things on the bright side. I know losing Walker hurts the short term, but their is plenty of time to make corresponding moves. I'll miss collecting cards of Walker, but he was going to be gone pretty no matter what after next season anyway. I just hope that the Pirates do something to ease the pain of trading a fan favorite. Maybe a Gerrit Cole extension or another starting pitcher signing.


I hope Neil has a good year with the Mets and gets a nice free agent deal. This will probably be his only chance to really cash in on a multi year deal.









20 comments:

  1. I think you summed it up pretty well. It becomes a game of maximizing value and minimizing risk. Let's look at Pedro for example. I've heard a lot of people saying, "why didn't we try to trade Pedro instead of letting him walk?" The truth is, they did, but, at this point, he had no value as a trade candidate. So, we had to let him go for nothing. Walker could have a great 2016 season, but what if he gets hurt? What if he couldn't throw to first all of a sudden? The Pirates would be left holding the bag again. 3 years of John Niece could end up helping the Pirates rotation. He's not as sexy as a prospect, but prospects come with no guarantees. At least with Niece they know they have something.

    These are the hard decisions that come with being a GM of a small payroll team. It's a chess game and you have to be able to see 2 moves ahead. The Pirates probably should have traded Pedro the offseason after he made the all star team. But, we bet on Pedro continuing to improve. He didn't and we got nothing for him.

    If we kept Walker this year, I think you have to go all in for one last run with your core. But, as we've seen, that's just not this management team's style. Hopefully Niece will work out and they will look like geniuses.

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    1. This can play out in a lot of different ways. I just hope one of those ways is beneficial to the Pirates. The Pirates are just not in the business of letting guys play through their contracts without getting some type of value at the end.

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  2. Good post. It's tough to deal guys who have been with the team for a while and enjoyed success.

    Walker always seems to end up on my fantasy team. He seems remarkably consistent for a 2B, providing a very solid bat. Seriously, go look at at 2B now versus like 2000 when everyone was juicing.

    Hopefully Niese provides you guys with some good value.

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    1. No doubt that Walker is about as consistent as they come. His bat will be missed as his power from the 2nd base position is a rare commodity. I've read that the plan is to start Harrison at 2nd so the drop off in overall production should be minimal, but the depth will take a huge hit.

      I think everyone has pretty low expectations for Niese and rightfully so. Just hope we can work some magic so people don't get all bent out of shape.

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  3. While the Cubs aren't a small market team, I can definitely see where you're coming from. Since we had to deal our longest tenured player in Starlin Castro to free up payroll for Zobrist. You don't realize how attached you become to a player until they're gone.

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    1. Walker was the longest tenured Pirate. He was drafted in 2004 and Cutch was 2005. It will be weird not having him in the lineup.

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  4. As a Mets fan, I am happy to get Walker as a bridge to our next prospect. I don't think they expect him to be a long term acquisition.

    As for Niese, I still like him and he can still be a good pitcher. There was a really interesting article on metsblog.com earlier this week (maybe even yesterday) talking about how even as a reliever making spot starts, that his salary is now a bargain for those three years and that the Mets didn't need to trade him. He is a good team guy and better suited to a team with a better infield than the Mets have generally been playing with. I wish him all the best with the Pirates.

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    1. Walker is about as steady as they come. While he tends to get banged up every year, you can pretty much count on 15-18 homers a year.

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  5. Yeah, It's tough for small market teams. I actually worry more when a team starts to spend a lot of money rather than relying on their farm system (like the Twins throwing money at Pelfrey, Nolasco, Kevin Correia, Ervin Santana, etc.).

    I think Niese should do well in Pittsburgh - he doesn't have to be a mentor to anyone, he doesn't have to be the #1 guy, he can just go out and pitch when called upon.

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    1. He fits the mold of Pirate pitchers. A guy that relies on fastball and gets groundballs. The Pirates also shift more than the Mets so that should help his numbers.

      oh god...Kevin Correia. I'm having flashbacks.

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  6. Good analysys, on a separate note
    Those big market teams trade away favorite players just as much, it seems.

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    1. It's true for every team its just harder for the Pirates to replace someone like Walker.

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  7. Neise Is a fighter,Matt.Playing In N.Y. his entire career has hardened him.I think he'll excel In Pittsburgh.It's sad to see him go,though.I've watched him since day 1 with the Metsies.The fact that he was one of the few to stick around N.Y. for so long says something.I think what I like most about Walker Is his switch hitting ability,although I've heard that he hits righties better.We haven't had a decent switch hitter since Reyes and Beltran.

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    1. Walker really struggled batting right handed last year to the point where the Pirates were platooning him most of the second half. All his power is on the left side of the plate. If I recall he only had one homerun right handed in the past couple of seasons. He more than makes up for it with what he can do against the righties.

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  8. Technically the Pirates have a ton of money. Every team does (even the Rays), but Pirates ownership is cheap and uses the small market team excuse to keep costs down. They could afford every marquee on the free agent market if they wanted to.

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    1. The Pirates have a tv deal coming up soon. That should allow us to have more money to play around with. Fortunately it is right when Cutch becomes a free agent.....

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  9. I'm going to miss Walker and hope that by June, we are forgetting about this trade when the Bucs are in 1st place with a lineup sorta like this
    Hanson
    Polanco
    Cutch
    Kang
    Marte
    Bell
    Harrison
    Cervelli
    Cole

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    1. They don't seem to be in any hurry with Bell and I'm not convinced they see Hanson as an everyday player. It would be cool to see him get a chance, but I'm not holding my breath.

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  10. Great post Matt! I live too much in the past. The days are so far behind us now when starting lineups were on a field together for even a few years. I'm addicted to the game though. At the end of every season, I say to myself - I'm done. I'm appalled by player contracts for ridiculous amounts of money. Spring comes and I find myself watching again. It took months this year tho to forgive Scherzer. Like he needed my blessing.

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    1. The money doesn't really even bother me anymore. MLB teams make so much that it has to go somewhere. I guess it is better that the cash stays on the field. The scary thing is the Pirates will have to deal with McCutchen in a couple of years.

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