With that being said tonight's Pirates game versus the Cubs brought up an issue that I have with the way the game is managed that is light years behind the way the Pirates run their team as a whole. Defined bullpen roles is something that just boggles my mind. Up until the 8th inning the game is based on match ups. Teams switch pitchers a ton to get the most statistically sound match up that is available. Sound strategy that for the most part works the majority of the time.
A little background first on the issue. Mark Melancon is the Pirates closer and has been lights out for two years coming into this season. After some rocky outings the first week of the season the local press was running some stories how his velocity was running about 5mph slower than normal. Melancon's bread and butter pitch is the cutter. He learned the pitch from Mariano Rivera and he has been very successful with it up until this year, but with the velocity drop a cutter becomes more of a get me over fastball.
The Pirate management came out and said the velocity drop is more of a "beginning of the year" issue and that it will work out after he gets more work. I have no problem with that, but holy shit you can't just let a guy work out his issues in the 9th inning. Long story short Melancon gave up 3 runs and faced 8 batters. It was a complete disaster that you could see coming from a mile away when the first three hitters ripped base hits.
What boggles my mind was that no one was warming up until the game had been blown. Managers don't hesitate in the 7th and 8th innings to make 5 pitching changes, but in the 9th they stick with the guy no matter what. While its always easy to play couch manager this is an issue that all teams face. With the exception of Chapman, Kimbrell and Kenley Jansen I would be playing matchups to the end.
I don't think Melancon should lose his high leverage situation role, because when he is right he is lights out. We just need to have a better feel for game situations. Let Melancon either go on the DL or pitch in lower leverage situations. The Pirates shift every batter, have a roster constructed from moneyball concepts and play statistical matchups up until the 8th inning. For the life of me I can't figure out why the 9th inning has to be so different......especially when your "closer" is throwing 88 instead of 93-95mph with movement.
The Pirates have been mediocre at best the last few years in April, so as a whole their is no reason to panic. You just hate to throw away games by not putting out your best options. Right now Melancon is not our best option.
End of rant.
Couldn't agree more
ReplyDeleteSilly stuff tonight.
DeleteFor the low price of BJ/Melvin Upton's contract, the Pirates could've had Craig Kimbrel...
ReplyDeleteHa! No Melvin Upton for me.The thing is I love Melancon but just hate that he has to pitch the 9th all the way through despite his ineffectiveness right now.
DeleteClosers drive me crazy. They're really valuable in my fantasy league (+15 per save). Four went in round three alone. But they're pretty much a wild card. Brian Fuentes was the closer for the Rockies several years ago. He blew four saves in a week and that was that. Can you imagine if McCutchen suddenly started dropping every third fly ball that was hit in his direction?
ReplyDeleteI know those last 3 outs can be a chore to get because guys grind out at bats more. My problem with the situation is that it is no secret that Melancon is not himself. The Cubs knew this as well. They just kept with him until the game was lost. Any other reliever would have been pulled much sooner.
DeleteUmm... I almost had a mental meltdown last season when Jim Johnson was closing games for us at the start of the season.
ReplyDeleteJohnson is a great example because he was a guy that relied on a sinker. When the sinker isn't right it becomes a crappy fastball. The only reason the A's stuck with him was because he was coming off two seasons in which he had at least 50 saves. Also his velocity stayed the same so the A's thought he would figure out his command.
DeleteIt should be easier for the Pirates to see that Melancon isn't himself because it shows up on the radar gun. The silly thing is the Pirates went through the same situation with Jason Grilli last year before they traded him. He lost a few ticks on his fastball and starting blowing games like crazy. They removed him from the role and eventually traded him.
I totally agree with you, but I'd like to add another point as well.
ReplyDeleteSay you're up by a run in the 7th or 8th inning and the other team has runners at first and second with no outs. Why isn't a Chapman or Kimbrel type used in this situation? It's "late" in the game and this could very well be a make or break inning, yet managers will often use their third or fourth best option in the bullpen.
I want my best relief pitcher on the bump when its a high leverage situation. Period.
For some reason the "closer" role has yet to be tweaked. You have to save your best guy for the 9th. I really thought by now a young up and coming manager would start doing things differently, but we are still waiting.
DeleteThe thing that really boggles my mind about last nights game is that it was obvious Melancon was not himself again. Even if we stayed with "traditional" roles you would hope that we would have a backup plan ready. It wasn't until Coghlan struck out that Caminero began to warm up. He would have been a perfect candidate to come in because he is a strike out guy. Could have at least gave us an opportunity to get out of the inning with the game still tied.
Yeah - if he's got something going on mechanically or physically, it doesn't make sense to have him be the closer for the moment.
ReplyDeleteLet him build up his velocity and get ready by making some appearances in the 6th or 7th innings.
You have little margin for error in the 9th so if your velocity is down that makes location that much more important. Already this year he has walked a ton and given up a ton of extra base hits. When he is going right he gets a ton of swing and misses and soft contact.
DeleteLike you said low leverage situations or a DL stint needs to happen. I'm leaning more towards a DL stint because he could get a nice lengthy rehab assignment.
Melancon for Lance Berkman was not a good trade.
ReplyDeleteHa. Even with the issue above I love Melancon. I love closers that induce a ton of weak contact. In previous two years he has only given up 3 homeruns. If you are going to beat him you have to string some hits together.
DeleteA few years back when Theo Epstein first started with the Red Sox, they hired on Bill James as a consultant. For about two weeks or so (or maybe more) under Terry Francona, they tried going without defined roles. After suffering a few blown saves/losses in the late innings, they went to a defined-role system despite all the intellectual horsepower that says defined roles are stupid, etc.
ReplyDeleteWhile statistically it makes no sense to have one guy as your 9th inning guy and only your 9th inning guy, it still makes sense for pitchers who are people and want to know what their role is. Psychologically, apparently, it matters a lot. It's a good thing Melancon's issues are more physical than mental -- the mental side would mean bye bye closer role.
It would take a whole season to see if it would actually work, but like you said their is the psychological aspect. A lot of times I think it has to do more with sample size and quality of the pitcher, but it does play a part. When Mariano Rivera got hurt David Robertson struggled and their was a lot of press that he didn't have the "mentality" to close out games. It turned out to be more of a sample size issue then a psych issue.
DeleteAnother point is the money involved for these players. Even though saves is a stupid stat it means millions of dollars during arbitration. It would have to be a change in a lot of aspects to make the system work.
Melancon's mentality is fine. He sucked in Boston, but the Pirates saw that his peripheral numbers will still right on track. Sure enough he worked it out and was dominant. This year he has lost about 5 mph on the fastball which he is barely throwing and about 3 on the cutter. He is unable to command the curve so guys are just sitting on the cutter which is not moving as much. I really should have wrote this when he almost blew a 5 run lead against the Tigers. Every ball was smoked but a double play saved him..
Caminero has the stuff to be a scary closer. Watson has proven he can do it. Even though Holdzkom is struggling with control in AAA, I'd love to see Mark go on DL and bring Holdzkom up as an extra arm.
ReplyDeleteI really don't care how they shuffle them as long as they recognize that something wasn't right with Melancon the first two weeks. Even if it is just dead arm you don't keep throwing a guy out there in the highest leverage situations possible. At least the starters have been halfway decent. We could really use 7 strong from Locke today......or even better would be a blowout win.
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