Last March, A.J. Burnett said, "If I was to keep playing, I wouldn't want it to be anywhere else but Pittsburgh." 10 months later, that may no longer be the case. It appears that Burnett will continue to keep playing in 2014, but if it is in Pittsburgh, it will likely be because the Pirates offered him the best deal. And, as any long time fan of this club will tell you, the chances of the Pirates paying market value or above for any free agent are pretty slim. If Burnett does land elsewhere in 2014, there are sure to be hard feelings among many Buccos fans, and in some ways, it will look as if he did go back on his word about only wanting to be in Pittsburgh. However, the Pirates didn't exactly show a great desire to keep A.J. in the 'Burgh when they declined to make a 14.1 million dollar qualifying offer which could have made Burnett's decision easier.
So, did the Pirates make a mistake by not making that qualifying offer? Last year, Burnett's 209 strikeouts led all free agent starters, and placed him first in K/9 rate. For the more sabermetrically inclined, his 2.80 FIP and 2.92 xFIP were also tops. While his 4.0 WAR trailed only James Shields and Jon Lester. Not to mention that Burnett led the Pirates in all these stats as well as innings pitched. Shields' and Lester's club options were both picked up for 12 and 13 million respectively, and both are considerably younger than Burnett. But, we have also seen Hiroki Kuroda, who is one year older, sign a one year 16 million dollar deal with the Yankees. Given his age and comparable, if slightly less impressive, stat line last season, Kuroda might be the best comparison to A.J. this off season. And while it's impossible to guess what he will ultimately receive, I think it's safe to say that 14.1 million is easily within the range of market value for other comparable free agent starters.
I'm not usually a fan of printing plates, but A.J. does not have any Pirate related relics or autos on the market. This printing plate is from Topps Heritage and cost less than $10 on EBAY.
I'm in the camp that the Pirates were probably in a bad spot with Burnett no matter what they decided. When a guy publicly states that his only choices are resigning or retirement it gave the Pirates a false sense of security. No matter what the Pirates offered him they would essentially been bidding against themselves. Now that he is on the open market he becomes the most desired free agent. Ubaldo Jiminez and Ervin Santana each want multi-year deals and have draft pick compensation tied to them via the qualifying offer. AJ Burnett in a sense is the perfect free agent. No draft pick compensation and would only require a one year deal. Needless to say bidding will go beyond the Bucs budget.
ReplyDeleteHe'd been in Queens already if Alderson wasn't the GM. I still think it's a 55/45 odds he ends up in queens with a shaky rotation as of now for this year. I see him going to the Bronx. Pirates need a some POP in their lineup to have better results than last yr.
ReplyDeleteHe would be a good fit for the Mets as a filler until Harvey is back next year. Mlbtraderumors.com has been mentioning the Orioles and the Rays as active pursuers. Like I said above he is the perfect free agent. Minimal commitment gets you a top tier pitcher. Even if he regresses some due to his age he is still a good pitcher. He had the highest k per 9 in the NL last year. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out. As a lifelong Pirate fan I'm always skeptical.
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