The Legend

The Legend

Friday, December 2, 2016

Smoking Hot Takes (What Would You Do?)


As most of you know Andrew McCutchen's name keeps coming up in trade rumors and will continue to do so until he is dealt. With Cutch being a marquis name you can expect some interesting takes on the situation.  The majority are in the camp of "this sucks, but I get it." Others are ready to get out their pitchforks and storm Pirates headquarters because trading Cutch is an injustice to the city of Pittsburgh.

I thought it would be fun to lay out the facts on paper and we can all draw our own conclusions.


  • Cutch is 30 years old
  • He has one more year on his contract and a team option for 2018 at $14,750,000
  • He is coming off the worst season of his career
  • Before last  season he was a top 3 NL player. Here are his WAR totals via Fangraphs. 
    • 2010 3.5
    • 2011 5.5
    • 2012 6.8
    • 2013 8.4
    • 2014 6.8
    • 2015 5.8
    • 2016 0.7
  • The last three years he has graded out as a poor centerfielder
  • He is the face of the franchise 
  • The Bucs have a high end outfield prospect Austin Meadows that most think will be ready in June.


Here are the options.
  1. Trade Cutch now since he has two years of control. 
  2. Trade Cutch during the season or next offseason so he can regain some value
  3. Try to win with Cutch in the next two years then let him leave via free agency and slap a qualifying offer on him. 
  4. Extend Cutch a contract offer to keep him in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future. 
My opinion:

Number 3 was likely never an option to begin with but the CBA eliminated that first round pick be tied to the qualifying offer. 

Trying to extend Cutch gained a little traction in the media last year, but based on track record it was never really an option. Before Cutch struggled last season he was a perennial MVP candidate and heading into his age 29 season. A market rate contract would have been 200 million.  You would figure the Pirates would have had to offer around 150 mil to make it work.  Even if Cutch took a home team discount it would have never happened. The Pirates just don't do business like that. Some say he is a special case, but the track record speaks for itself. 

This is where the pitchfork fans start getting mad at ownership. Many believe the Pirates have boat loads of cash and refuse to reinvest in talent.  Maybe that is true, but I can only base an opinion on what I know and previous track record. 

Unfortunately in my mind the only options are trading him now or eventually down the road.  This is where it becomes almost like gambling. If you wait to trade him and he continues to regress it would destroy any trade value. Maybe you wait to move him and he regains his value.  What happens if he is awesome and the Pirates are in contention.  That is a great situation as a fan, but it puts the Pirates in a tough spot because the PR on trading a star player when your team is good would be rough. He would essentially have to play out the year and get moved in the offseason. 

My thought going into the offseason was that option 2 would happen even though I though option 1 was probably the better idea.  Even if Cutch were to have a strong year the loss of a year of control would probably counteract any of the regained value. Trading him now seems like the safer move and the one in which the Pirates could get the most value. 

One aspect that most local writers seem to avoid is the Pirates are only wildcard contenders at best. Even if Cutch regains his MVP form the team is still young and weak in the pitching department. The elephant in the room is the Cubs are a powerhouse and significantly better than any other team in the NL Central. 

This is the downfall of loving a small market team.  It is an evil cycle. 

What do you think the Pirates should do? 





18 comments:

  1. Trade him to the Yankees for Ellsbury. (kidding, kidding...just pretending I'm on local radio)

    Honestly, unless you can get a top prospect, I'd hang on to him, and hope that he rebounds a bit, then perhaps look to deal him at the deadline. Give a player of his calliber a little time to rebound and re-establish some value.

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    1. That is where I'm torn. In my mind your idea seems to be the best, but I'm thinking teams will pay more just to have the full two years of control. The Pirates are in a tough spot.

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  2. This reminds me of the Orioles and Adam Jones a bit (my team) though we still have a couple of years of Adam at a cheaper rate if I'm not mistaken. In both cases, though, you can't help but think sliding them over to a corner spot would be less wear and tear on their body and would allow them to improve offensively at the plate, too. Hard to think of the Pirates without Cutch...

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    1. I think if he stays with the Bucs he will mover over to right field. The problem with that is it could potentially hurt his trade value as it is much easier to market a center fielder than a corner outfielder.

      It is sad to think of him in another uniform.

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  3. Cutch still has some value and unless the Pirates are going to make a run at the WS in the next couple years, it would probably be best to get a few younger players in a trade deal.

    There was some rumbling of the Mariners possibly interested in trading for him but it looks like that won't happen. Safeco needs good defensive center fielder (in general terms, Leonys Martin did alright for us this year) so if what you say about him being graded out as poor is true, then he surely wouldn't fit in Seattle.

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    1. Yeah the Mariner rumors were some of the first to come along, but I think the Pirates are only interested in prospects and I'm guessing the Mariners wanted to swap from the big league roster.

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  4. That's a tough one. I'd hate to see the Pirates sell low on the face of their franchise. I know 30 isn't young but it just seems to me like he had an off year - not the beginning of a decline.

    That said, if the Bucs have enough OF depth, and can address a need somewhere else I guess it makes sense to trade Cutch now. Gotta get a blue-chipper back, or two. I have a hard time believing a middle reliever can fetch a better prospect package than a 30-yr old CF who just won an MVP not too long ago.

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    1. Most seem to think it was a blip on the radar and that he will regain form. The bad thing is he only has two years of control either way. I would love to see him one more year, but I still think the Bucs move him during the winter meetings.

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  5. The Pirates are really in a tough spot. We're talking about "giving up" on the face of franchise here. At this point in time, educated fans would probably be okay with swapping him for a couple of Top 50 prospects, but the majority of fans are just idiots. They WILL storm headquarters with pitchforks and claim the sky is falling. What's worse is that's all you'll hear on talk radio, because those are the ones that sell. Ugh. Unfortunately, I think this is true for ALL fan bases.
    The arrow is still pointing up on both Marte and Polanco... and Meadows seems to be solid bet. Clearing a path for Meadows seems like a solid idea. Plus, Cutch's contract is a lot of cash to get out from under that the Pirates could put to use elsewhere.
    It's never easy to say goodbye to a star, but the return now will definitely be greater than it will be once he walks to free agency. I think they need to pull the trigger now on a trade, but I'm also of the mind that Cutch's best days are sadly behind him.

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    1. I can't listen to sports radio. One of my friends told me the other day a "Pirates fan" called in and said that the Pirates not resigning Sean Rodriguez was a sign we are rebuilding. I forgot Sean Rodriguez was a cornerstone of our team. Idiots!

      You are right though, the reasonable fan can be pissed that he will play on another team, but completely understand why it is being done.

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  6. I love 'Cutch and I wouldn't be happy to see him not return to the Bucos-yeah we are in the Division but he means a lot for the 'Burgh and for NL Central fans to watch.

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    1. Cutch was just an easy guy to root for. Sad day for sure when it finally happens.

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  7. McCutchen is one of those players who I would love to see stay with one team. As a Cardinals fan I cannot imagine seeing the Pirates without him.

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    1. Yeah that would be weird. I'm hoping they would trade him to the AL so we won't be constantly reminded.

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  8. I obviously don't want to see Cutch get moved. Personally I would rather try to win a championship with him then build for the future. If the haul is an overall top 10 prospect in baseball, it will be easier to accept. It just better net better results than when Jason Bay got traded.

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    1. The Pirates seem obsessed with Robles. Just don't know if the Nats are willing to kick anything else of substance in. Rumor now is the Nats were wanting to do a 1 for 1. That seems way to risky for the Bucs.

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  9. If I was the Pirates GM, I'd keep him and make him a lifelong Pirate. But then again... I'm a fan of guys who play their entire career with one franchise and I realize this doesn't happen very often anymore.

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    1. Only big market teams seem to be able to do that these days. Votto is the only guy on a smaller market team I can think of that has a deal that essentially keeps him with the same team his entire career. With the Reds trying to rebuild I'm sure they kind of regret that deal.

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